TENSION over Catalan independence could spill over into a second Spanish Civil War, a political expert has warned.
The volatile stand-off between Madrid and Catalan separatists has chilling echoes with the turmoil that led to the devastating conflict that killed 140,000 people in former Yugoslavia 20 years ago, claims political and military analyst Sara Plana.
The Spanish government plans to take unprecedented control of Catalonia’s key affairs and halt the region’s push for independence after a partial referendum earlier this month saw violence break out as police dragged voters out of polling stations.
As tension mounted during the day, Spanish cops fired rubber bullets and beat people with batons as they tried to disperse crowds gathering to vote.
Police also forcibly dragged people out of polling stations as they tried to vote.
Plana, writing in War on the Rocks, claims politicians must not underestimate the danger of the stand-off disintegrating into armed conflict.
She says Madrid’s authority was weakened in Catalonia when local cops refused to disrupt the referendum vote and regional politicians ignored orders from the national government – which could give hope to hard-line separatists.
And Spain’s shaky economy, especially the fact that Catalonians resent paying more in tax than they get back in investment, is another concern.
The region represents a fifth of Spain’s GDP and there is anger that the population pay more taxes to central government than are returned to the area.
In Yugoslavia, wealthy Slovenia and Croatia were angry that they had to share their money with less well-off regions, Plana writes.
The Spanish state may also fear other separatist movements in Spain – such as the Basque region – could take heart from Catalonia’s boldness.
She said: “In perhaps the most alarming parallel to Yugoslavia, a number of nations within Spain have separatist aspirations, and an independent Catalonia could be just the first of many dominoes to fall.
“Catalan independence could therefore reveal the fragility of the project of Spanish governance, which is why the state may be willing to go to war to preserve it.”
Civil war and violent separatist groups are hardly new to Spain.
Basque militant group Eta killed more than 800 people in some 40 years of violence as it sought to carve out an independent country straddling Spain and France.
A ceasefire in 2010 ended the violence, and this summer the group began handing over its remaining weapons – but it is feared they still have weapons stockpiles unknown to Spanish cops.
And between 1936 and 1939 Republicans fought a bloody civil war with fascist forces led by General Francisco Franco.
Earlier this month EU budget commissioner Gunther Oettinger said the situation is “very, very worrying” and added: “There is a civil war imaginable now in the middle of Europe.”